March 22, 2023
Sharing 3 Disliked Derby Prep Picks

By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman

The Street to the Kentucky Derby continues this Saturday with three main prep races: $250,000 Sam F. Davis S. (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, $250,000 Withers S. (G3) at Aqueduct, and $100,000 Derby at El Camino Actual Golden Gate Fields.

On this week’s version of Unlocking Winners, we’ll check out all three races:

Sam F. Davis S. (G3)

A aggressive 12-horse course has emerged towards 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis, and you can also make a case for nearly anybody to go to the winners’ circle. So I hesitate to choose the apparent favourite Web page #7though it does deliver sturdy credentials to the desk. The Good Magic’s son took the primary one-mile particular weight victory at Aqueduct, adopted by a definitive tally as he beat Arctic Vanity within the 1 1/8-mile Remsen S. (G2) at Aqueduct (see under) 100 Brisnet Together with his velocity ranking, Sam F. Davis outstripes his discipline by a large margin.

However Dubyuhnell hasn’t been working in two months and is racing outdoors of New York for the primary time, so as a substitute of supporting him at a brief value, I am going to assume outdoors the field with the proficient district campaigner. #1 Worthington.

Educated by Mike Maker (who received a strong 18% with horses shifting from turf to floor based on Brisnet statistics), Worthington is a decent third on Dania Seashore S. in Gulfstream Park. The standard of competitors that day was deep; A 1-2 finisher, Candidate and Main Dude returned for second and first place in Kitten’s Pleasure S. (G3) final week. Main Dude earned two ranked shares and in addition competed within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1).

As a son of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) hero Traditional Empire, Worthington has the pedigree to cope with filth, so there is a clear chance this Triple Crown candidate will thrive as he modifies surfaces for Sam F. Davis. Add the profitable Tampa Bay Downs jockey Pablo Morales (20% winner right here since 2018) and I am certain Worthington will cross the morning line 20-1.

Withers S. (G3)

The apparent option to win this 1 1/8 mile race #1 Arctic VanityHis 4 efforts thus far at Aqueduct embody ending second within the 1 1/8-mile Remsen S. (G2) and a one-mile Jerome S. on the Street to the Kentucky Derby. In each of those races, Arctic Vanity stood out from the beginning (even set the tempo at Remsen) earlier than rising on the dropping facet of protracted home battles.

Arctic Vanity provides flashers to Remsen which have the potential to sharpen his focus and push him into the circle of winners. However after two consecutive defeats in races the place it has each probability to win, Arctic Vanity is just a little laborious to rely on a brief value, so I am going to attempt to beat it. #4 Hit Present.

The Hit Present surpassed his debut with seven long-distance runs in Keeneland, then completed fourth in an non-obligatory $100,000 allowance racing 11 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. This was a deep race because the winner (Sport of Confidence) returned to complete third in Lecomte S. (G3), whereas the runner-up (Rocket Can) received Holy Bull S. (G3) final week.

Hit Present likewise returned to run nicely, crushing an non-obligatory $100,000 allowance racing a mile at Oaklawn Park by 3 1/2 lengths. Sizzling coach Brad Cox has compiled a 12-6-3-0 (50%) document at Aqueduct since November 1, and jockey Manny Franco received by 21% in the identical timeframe, so all indicators level to the Hit Present sitting down in an excellent run.

El Camino Actual Derby

Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert has received two of the final three editions of the El Camino Actual Derby and is able to obtain one other courtesy. #1 Gilmoreone among solely two Triple Crown candidates on this 1 1/8-mile Tapeta take a look at.

Gilmore ran respectably on his debut with six long-distance sprints at Del Mar and completed third with three-quarters, gaining 3 1/4 lengths over the ultimate lengthy distance. Then reaching out for the primary particular weight of 1 mile at Los Alamitos did wonders for Twirling Sweet’s son, who beat the following winner, Roll On Huge Joe, by 4 lengths.

Twirling Sweet has already taken over 2021 El Camino Actual Derby winner Rombauer, so there is no cause to assume Gilmore will not settle for the transfer to Tapeta. I’m optimistic that this grey colt will take residence the best rankings in his first recreation.

For small prizes, #4 Transition And #2 Chasing Chaos They’re apparent choices after working 1-2 on the one-mile Gold Rush S. at Golden Gate Fields. However do not overlook the quick one Web page #5, boasting an ideal 2v2 document run on the Golden Gate Tapeta. Harcyn outstripped anybody who claimed an non-obligatory $50,000 allowance final month by 3 3/4 lengths and stands out as a harmful tempo participant as he stretches the space for the El Camino Actual Derby.

Now it is your flip! Who do you like at this week’s Street to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers?


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J. Keeler Johnson (also referred to as “Keelerman”) is a author, cameraman, voice actor, hurdler and all-round horse racing fanatic. As an enormous fan of racing historical past, Dr. He considers Fager the best racehorse ever inbuilt America, however considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.

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