June 8, 2023
Warm up on the Triple Crown Way

one. Derma Sotogake

As an enormous fan of 1989 Horse of the Yr Sunday Silence, I’ve lengthy admired Japanese breeding and racing packages from afar and as such have usually supported Japanese runners transport to worldwide occasions in or exterior the US. with vital bets. A notable exception was the Kentucky Derby (G1), as I’ve at all times most well-liked the extra conventional routes to Louisville, Ky., and prevented worldwide runners, particularly these popping out of the UAE Derby (G2). Which will change this yr as I see Derma Sotogake as a considerably higher candidate than Japan. Crown Pleasure it was a yr in the past or lani in 2016 or grasp fencer One of the crucial compelling UAE Derby winners to make the journey (or at the least plan to do) in 2019 and from the Center East to Kentucky.

Derma Sotogake led the Dubai World Cup backside card from begin to end with a powerful 5 1/2 win within the $1 million UAE Derby on 25 March. by chestnut colt Take Care of Your Biscuits After beginning his profession on the sphere, the 2-year-old closed his season utterly slowly by successful three grime races in a row in Japan. His streak was capped by a head victory at Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun, one thing he had an enormous enchancment on when he received within the closing steps on the finish of the race after lastly altering the lead on the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun, the Japan Street to Kentucky Derby race. UAE Derby. Derma Sotogake completed her 3-year-old debut in a non-threatening third place within the $1.5 million Saudi Derby (G3). Perhaps he wanted that race or simply did not just like the floor as a result of he took an enormous step ahead regardless of a questionable pitch within the UAE Derby, advancing to 4 wins and two-thirds in six races on grime. He is bought three wins at distances of 1 1/8 mile or extra, a terrific basis, and the flexibility to set, suppress or monitor tempo. Derma Sotogake appears to be like like a legit successful candidate.

2. Kingsbarns

The Kingsbarns made their debut within the Louisiana Derby (W2). Honest Grounds Racetrack and Slots After asserting his first win in January Gulfstream Park and a 7 3/4 lengthy romp within the second profession race Tampa Bay Downs in February. Each wins, the primary at a mile and the second at a mile 40 yards, have been spectacular and Uncle Mo colt has created vital buzz amongst Kentucky Derby Future Wager bookies.

Photograph: Hodges Images / Amanda Hodges Weir

Kingsbarns wins Louisiana Derby at Honest Grounds

Within the Louisiana Derby, the Kingsbarns have been second betting favorites with 9-2 odds on March 25, regardless of reaching mile 13/16 and trying the betting contest for the primary time. He handed the take a look at, main from begin to end with a 3 1/2-length victory the place he did not actually battle within the stress. Kingsbarns’ 100 factors safe their spot within the Kentucky Derby with Corridor of Fame coach Todd Pletcher’s undefeated 3-on-3 report. There was lots to love, and the Kingsbarns are positive to get a lift on their strategy to the Triple Crown’s first gem on Might 6, however there are additionally skeptics who declare they’re already allowed to scurry over three-quarters of a mile. 1:14.69 with a sluggish end of 1:57.33. : He completed properly with the final three-sixteenths of a mile at 18.20, adopted by a strong quarter mile at :24.44. He earned a career-high 95 Beyer Pace ​​Determine (a 10-point enchancment) and a 98 Brisnet velocity ranking (a three-point improve) and snatched one of the best Equibase Pace ​​Determine (100 at his earlier begin), so there are some disparities there. Within the Kentucky Derby he solely wants to increase one-sixteenth of an additional mile, however his tempo will certainly be a lot sooner and broodmare sir tapit helps trigger. There’s lots to love in regards to the Kingsbarns, however it’s laborious to belief the end result of a race that was run awkwardly at such a sluggish tempo.


3. two Phils

Subsequent cease: Louisville and Kentucky Derby for Two Phil’s (after a brief two-week drive) Hawthorne Raceway coach Larry Rivelli’s sole). This Exhausting Spun Colt has apparently danced each dance since October 2022 with 5 tier bets. On March 25, Jeff sprints 5 1/4 lengths in Ruby Steaks (G3) as he enters the Triple Crown’s first jewel in a career-best race. Grass Street Park. In Jeff Ruby’s escape victory, he achieved career-best velocity figures: 101 Beyer (13-point soar), 97 ESF (two-point enchancment), and a flamboyant 107 Brisnet (13 factors increased than his earlier peak). Within the velocity figures alone, Two Phil’s appears to be like like a high contender for the 1 1/4 mile traditional, however the exit race got here on the artificial Tapeta Footings floor at Turfway and did not run as quick (and even near Beyer/Brisnet) on grime floor earlier than in seven races. Two of the final 12 Kentucky Derby winners (Animal Kingdom 2011; Wealthy Strike , 2022) got here out of this artificial prep on Turfway and Two Phil’s battled in opposition to one of the best 3-year-olds earlier than Jeff Ruby. Received the Avenue Sense Stakes (G3). Churchill Downs and each positioned second within the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and third within the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Honest Grounds earlier this yr. I am often fairly skeptical of the Jeff Ruby runners in Derby, however I feel Two Phil has an opportunity to have an enormous race on the primary Saturday of Might.

Two Phil's wins Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park on Saturday, March 25, 2023
Photograph: Coady Images

two Phils

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