By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Probably the most prestigious races happening this week can be one of the crucial troublesome to handicap. Held on the Honest Grounds on Saturday, the $400,000 Risen Star S. (G2) Highway to the Kentucky Derby awards qualification factors to prime 5 finishers on a 50-20-15-10-5 foundation, so profitable that 14 horses 1 1 / 8 mile race.
It’s troublesome to separate the important thing contenders. You may make a case in order that a minimum of half of the individuals go to the winners circle. While you’re like a flamboyant Honest Grounds winner #2 Single Ruler listed at 30-1 on the morning line, you realize you are wanting right into a deep area.
Morning line favourite
#13 Order of Victory at 3-1 and the credentials are engaging. The undefeated son of Tapwrit, winner of Belmont S. (G1), boasts a 3-for-3 resume. After profitable their first and allowance sprints on the Kentucky circuit final fall, Victory Formation stretched for a one-mile Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park and tied the Highway to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers by three lengths. Coach Brad Cox is on fireplace on the Honest Grounds on this match and is profitable by 43%, so Victory Formation plans a aggressive shot at Risen Star.
However is the Order of Glory invincible? Not essentially. From level 13, he might want to use his early velocity to keep away from a large journey, which leaves the Victory Formation in a scorching tempo. Horses like Honest Grounds allowance optionally declare winner #4 With dedication and Santa Anita is the primary winner
Web page #5 Have loads of velocity and form to fight Willpower for early supremacy. #13 Non-public ReligionHe positioned third within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Dash (G1) final fall, and will additionally take a ahead place to keep away from a large journey from the 14th publish.
Moreover, you would argue that Victory Formation did not beat the hardest space in Smarty Jones. Denington, who completed third, then completed distant fourth on the Lecomte S. (G3) at Honest Grounds, whereas Smarty Jones completed final of eight on Southwest S. (G3) at Oaklawn, Western Ghent, fourth-placed fourth.
As a substitute of giving my help to the Victory Formation for a brief worth, I will suppose a bit of bit unorthodox. #8 Tapit’s Conquest (6-1), one other Cox intern with encouraging credentials.
Tapit’s Conquest, which completed second within the dash debut at Saratoga final summer time, was profitable at Churchill Downs because it stretched over 1 1/16 mile for the primary particular weight on October 1 and adopted the early tempo earlier than setting off to attain 3 1/2 lengths. Tapit’s son then spent 3 1/2 months on the sidelines, making an optionally available 1 1/16-mile declare on the Honest Grounds on January 21, and bravely rallied to complete second from final place. Stalks had been resolutely positioned round his neck.
Tapit’s Conquest gained 3 1/4 lengths within the remaining episode of that allowance contest, not dangerous for a debut by a distance. He has since posted just a few fast exercises and certified for the second begin of the season to progress, opening the door for a aggressive run. It helps that Tapit’s Conquest will probably be pushed by three-time Risen Star award-winning jockey Florent Geroux, who has gained 34% on the Honest Grounds on this match and has teamed with Cox 46% within the final two months, in accordance with Brisnet statistics.
Beneath Tapit’s Conquest,
#9 Curly Jack (8-1) and #10 Two Phils (8-1) are apparent contenders for small prizes. Curly Jack wants no introduction; He has already earned his Highway to the Kentucky Derby qualifying factors by profitable the Iroquois S. (G3), ending fifth within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and second within the Kentucky Jockey Membership S. (G2). Conditioned by fiery coach Tom Amoss (a 31% winner at Honest Grounds this occasion), Curly Jack is flexible in his working type and barely runs a foul race and secures a prime 4 end.
The 2 Phils racked up Highway to the Kentucky Derby qualifying factors, ending second within the Lecomte S. (G3) at Honest Grounds final month. Newcomers to Lecomte have claimed seven of the final 15 editions of Risen Star, and Two Phil’s deserves respect by default, for being Lecomte’s sole graduate on Saturday’s area. The enchantment is including to the truth that it outstripped the 1 1/16-mile Road Sense S. (G3) at Churchill Downs final fall.
Now it is your flip! Who do you like in Risen Star Stakes?
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J. Keeler Johnson (often known as “Keelerman”) is a author, cameraman, voice actor, hurdler and all-round horse racing fanatic. As an enormous fan of racing historical past, Dr. He considers Fager the best racehorse ever inbuilt America, however considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
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